Text 408, 109 rader
Skriven 2004-08-01 15:26:32 av RICHARD JOHNSON (1:10/345)
     Kommentar till en text av JEFF BINKLEY
Ärende: RE: Convention
======================
On 8/1/04 3:16 PM, JEFF BINKLEY wrote to ALL:


-> Poll: No boost for Kerry after convention
-> By Susan Page, USA TODAY
-> 
-> WASHINGTON ÿ Last week's Democratic convention boosted voters' views of 
-> John Kerry but failed to give him the expected bump in the race against 
-> President Bush, a USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup Poll finds.
-> In the survey, taken Friday and Saturday, Kerry trailed Bush 50%-46% 
-> among likely voters. Independent candidate Ralph Nader was at 2%.

Of course there is also this from Newsweek:

By Brian Braiker
Newsweek
Updated: 4:53 p.m. ET July 31, 2004

July 31 - Coming out of the Democratic National Convention in Boston, Sen. John
Kerry now holds a seven-point lead over President George W. Bush (49 percent to
42 percent) in a three-way race with independent Ralph Nader (3 percent),
according to the latest NEWSWEEK poll The poll was taken over two nights, both
before and after Kerry's acceptance speech. Respondents who were queried after
Kerry's Thursday night speech gave the Democrat a ten-point lead over Bush. 


Or this from CNN/TIME:

The registered voters surveyed favored Kerry over Bush 50-47, a slight change
from 49-45 found in a similar poll conducted two weeks ago.

Or this from Zogby:

The Race Is On: An Analysis of the Post-Convention Zogby Poll By John Zogby and
Christopher Conroy

The most recent Zogby poll shows deeper trouble for President George W. Bush
beyond just the horserace.  Mr. Bush has fallen in key areas while Senator John
Kerry has shored up numerous constituencies in his base.  The Bush team’s
attempted outreach to base Democratic and swing constituency has shown to be a
failure thus far, limiting his potential growth in the electorate.

The most important group in this election now is the undecideds and Mr. Bush’s
standing among them is weak.  He is generally well liked among the undecideds,
having a strong favorability (56%), but his job performance is another story. 
Only 32% approve of Bush’s job in office and only 31% believe the country is
headed in the right direction. The undecideds are not yet sold on Mr. Kerry,
with only 49% having a favorable opinion of him.  But Mr. Kerry can still sell
his message to them: over a quarter (28%) are either not familiar enough or are
not sure of their opinion yet.  These undecided voters are generally
dissatisfied with the President, but are still not acquainted enough with the
Senator from Massachusetts to support him.

The Bush campaign’s efforts to court voters in the Hispanic, Jewish, and
Catholic communities seem to have fallen flat.  Mr. Kerry is leading Mr. Bush
by a similar margin to that which former Vice-President Al Gore won among
Jewish voters in 2000.  Mr. Bush is also running far behind his 2000 Hispanic
total, with only 19% of the Hispanic voters supporting him, while Mr. Kerry is
beating Mr. Gore’s total with 69%.  Mr. Kerry is also running very strong among
Catholics, topping Mr. Bush, 52% to 37%, showing that not only has Bush’s
courting of them failed, but his use of wedge issues like gay marriage and
partial birth abortion have failed to separate Catholic voters from Kerry.

The Senator’s lead among Catholics is similar to the Clinton margins of the
1990s.

Mr. Bush has also shown weakness in what is considered to be his best region,
the South.  While Kerry’s choice of Senator John Edwards gives him his biggest
boost, his economic populism and courting of veterans are also key in his
eroding of Mr. Bush’s support.  Not only has Kerry now come to a tie with Bush
in favorability in the South (55% for both), the Kerry-Edwards ticket has
pulled ahead, 48% to 46% in the South.  President Bush’s job performance is
down to only 44% in the South, and only 43% of Southerners think the country is
headed in the right direction.

Mr. Kerry is also performing well in Blue states, among Young voters and among
Single voters.  In the Blue states, Mr. Kerry is winning 50% to 38%, while in
the Red States, Mr. Bush is only winning 48% to 46%.  Among Single voters, Mr.
Kerry is winning huge by a total of 69% to 19%.  And among young voters ÿ 18-29
year olds ÿ a group Al Gore only won by 2 points in 2000, Kerry is winning in a
landslide, 53% to 33%.

There are three factors contributing to Senator Kerry’s lead in the electorate;
first is President Bush’s eroding base, second is his failure in outreach to
swing groups and base Democratic constituencies, and third is Mr. Kerry’s
strengthening of his base.  Mr. Kerry also has the potential to open a bigger
lead in two areas.  First, among the undecided voters, if Mr. Kerry can sell
himself as a viable alternative to Mr. Bush, he stands to make large gains
amongst the small, but significant chuck of undecideds. Second is in the
turnout arena, Mr. Kerry’s large leads amongst Hispanics ÿ who will potentially
make up a great portion of the electorate than they did in 2000 ÿ and young
voters ÿ who numerous non-partisan groups like Rock the Vote and MTV are
targeting ÿ will stand to boost his total share of the vote with every point
their turnout increases.  Mr. Kerry is showing a 2-to-1 lead (50% to 25%)
amongst voters who didn’t vote in 2000, while winning three-quarters (75%) of
Ralph Nader’s voters and stealing twice as many (8% to 4%) of Mr. Bush voters
in 2000 than Bush is stealing of Gore voters in 2000.


There is much, much more in this vein, but you get the message, eh?

Of course, since you are swimming in that great river of Egypt regarding your
Commander Codpiece (aka C-plus Augustus, perhaps you don't.

Keep drinking the kool-aid, Mr. Binkley.

 
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