Text 9118, 87 rader
Skriven 2005-02-14 13:25:58 av Alan Hess
Ärende: too early on Iraq democracy
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http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/opinion/bal-op.chapman14feb14,1,2212296.story
?coll=bal-pe-opinion
It's way too early for self-congratulation about democracy in Iraq


By Steve Chapman

February 14, 2005

CHICAGO - It's a good time to be an orthopedic surgeon in a red state because
lots of Republicans have dislocated their shoulders patting themselves on the
back. They interpret the Jan. 30 elections in Iraq as a rousing vindication of
the administration's policies as well as a stinging rebuke to its critics.

"America's willful defeatists," crowed National Review Online, "look
particularly puny in light of the millions who turned out to vote because they
believe in the new Iraq."

But what did the elections prove that comes as any surprise? Contrary to the
claims of the administration's supporters, critics of the war never opposed
letting Iraqis vote. Nor did they say Iraqis lacked interest in voting. In
fact, since the 2003 invasion, the chief obstacle to elections in Iraq was the
Bush administration.

Under the U.S. occupation, it took nearly two years to bring about this
introduction to democracy. For much of that time, the Shiite leader, Grand
Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, was demanding early elections to choose a government
and the American occupation authority was refusing, preferring a complicated
system of regional caucuses.

The Bush administration wanted to put off a vote for several reasons. One was
the supposed lack of reliable voter rolls. Another was the fear the Shiites
would win and demand an Iran-style Islamic regime.

Finally, no one in the White House wanted an Iraqi election during the American
presidential campaign, for fear it would go badly and impede Bush's
re-election.

For all the triumphal pronouncements, no one knows yet what the actual turnout
was. But it would not be a surprise if Iraq's Shiites and Kurds turned out in
force.

The Shiites are keen on democracy mainly because they account for about 60
percent of the population. When you have 60 percent of the electorate, what's
not to like about majority rule? The Kurds have the semi-autonomous enclave of
Kurdistan, and they made it clear they would go to the polls to protect it.

The real question on Jan. 30 was whether Sunnis would vote in substantial
numbers, and there is little evidence so far to suggest they did. Their turnout
was so low in Saddam Hussein's home province of Salahuddin, where they
constitute a majority, that the Shiite coalition actually led in the voting.

Why does it matter if the Sunnis voted? Because they are at the core of the
insurgency. Sunnis, who are 20 percent of the population, are accustomed to
holding power and are fearful of how they will fare if the Shiites are in
charge. If the Sunnis didn't vote, they'll have little representation in the
new parliament, little say in drafting the new constitution and little reason
to reject violent resistance.

Bush supporters act as though it's a miracle to be able to get voters to the
polls amid so much unrest. In fact, there are many cases in which elections
attracted lots of voters despite the bombs and bullets flying around them - El
Salvador in 1982, Uruguay in 1971, even Russia during the 1917 revolution.

It's also wishful thinking to suppose that the Iraqis who voted share President
Bush's shining vision of a free democracy friendly to the United States. A poll
in August found that 70 percent of Iraqis want an Islamic state.

As for the prevailing attitude toward America, the leader of the Shiite
coalition that finished first in the election said afterward, "No one welcomes
foreign troops in Iraq." Writes Juan Cole, a Middle East specialist at the
University of Michigan, "Most Shiites who voted on Sunday thought they were
voting for an end to U.S. hegemony in their country."

The people who are the real problem in Iraq, of course, are the insurgents, who
are not about to be appeased by the chance to vote.

The election was an inspiring spectacle, but an assessment of its effect on the
fate of Iraq will have to wait. The self-congratulation should wait as well.

Steve Chapman is a columnist for the Chicago Tribune, a Tribune Publishing
newspaper. His column appears Mondays and Wednesdays in The Sun.

Copyright + 2005, The Baltimore Sun

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