Text 9893, 189 rader
Skriven 2005-03-13 08:29:10 av John Hull (1:379/1.99)
Kommentar till text 9886 av Gary Braswell (1:123/789.0)
Ärende: HAVE YOU SEEN CATCH 22 OR
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13 Mar 05 01:25, Gary Braswell wrote to VERN HUMPHREY:
GB> VERN HUMPHREY -> GARY BRASWELL wrote:
VH>>>> How often have you heard one whine, "So why aren't we invading
VH>> Iran (or
VH>>>> North Korea)?"
GB>>> I don't think its a whine.
VH>> It's a whine, because the purpose is not to suggest a better
VH>> strategy, but to pretend we are somehow totally wrong.
GB> I think we have already pretty much gone over this before and
GB> since we are beyond talking about if we should have been in Iraq
GB> or not, we are there now and have to win.
GB> But I do think the point itself is a good one.
GB>>> They are a part of the "Axis of Evil" and as far as I can
GB>>> determine, more of threat than Iraq was.
Actually, they are not. Any monkey business on their part will bring down not
only China, but India, Japan, South Korea, and the US on their heads. They
can't survive a shooting war and they know it. They won't pop a nuke unless
the situation gets to the point where it becomes the ultimate act of defiance,
like in the cartoon of the mouse flipping off the owl just before he becomes
dinner for the owl.
VH>> Not quite. First of all, North Korea is pretty well check-mated
VH>> by China, who doesn't want them to spark a war.
GB> China may or may not want them to start a war, after all they are
GB> ramping up again for their talk of taking Taiwan.
The two situations are completely separate. China considers Taiwan a rogue
province, and will approach the situation as if it were an internal affair.
The Chinese get real indignant when we tell them to leave Taiwan alone because
they feel we are messing about in PRC family matters.
GB> If China rally wanted North Korea shut down, I think it would have
GB> already happened or be happening.
VH>> Secondly, there IS a War Against Terror -- and while North Korea
VH>> is dangerous, and has supported some Middle Eastern governments and
VH>> groups, the schwerpunct is the Middle East.
GB> Take your pick. I worry more about nukes in the hands of loons. We
GB> have to more than myopic in this world.
VH>> No one wants to say it, but the end game is to change the paradigm
VH>> in the Middle East. To do that, we have to BE in the Middle East.
VH>> Iraq, because of its location, beligerancy, and history is the
VH>> place to start.
GB> Again, I think this has been gone over ad nauseum. I disagree we
GB> should be in Iraq, but its too late and we have to win. That part
GB> of the debate is over.
Its like this: The Middle East is rickety house that is dangerous to everyone
in the area. Everybody who lives in the house fights with each other on a
regular basis, and on occassion with the neighbors. The best thing to do is
knock that house down for everybody's good, and the best place to smack it with
a wrecking ball is in the corner of the room where Iraq lives. A successful
couple of whacks and the whole thing falls apart.
That's what we're beginning to see now. We've administered the whacks and now
the rickety old house is starting to fall apart. Iraqi elections have gone off
on schedule; despite the bombings, they are making good progress toward
cleaning things up; other mideast countries are beginning to move toward
democratic rule; muslim officials are beginning to talk about the "Berlin Wall"
effect in the mideast.
GB> How it all comes out will determine how we view it ultimately. I
GB> am very happy for democracy in Iraq and fervently hope it spreads
GB> through the middle east.
It IS spreading, and we're hearing that more and more each day.
GB>>> While we largely ignored North Korea for two administrations,
GB>>> they went and made the bomb, effectively getting them exactly what they
GB>>> want, instant attention and respect through fear. Now if we do
GB>>> something they might light Seoul and/or Tokyo.
VH>> No -- we've hardly ignored them. We've had troops
VH>> eyeball-to-eyeball with them for half a century.
Vern's right. We have no more ignored N. Korea than we have Russia, or China,
or even Libya. Just talk to any GI who spent his service time on the DMZ
there. It is no picnic. And, while we seldom hear any news about such things,
we lose a certain number of people there every year as a result of that
continuing confrontation.
GB> Their nuclear program is what we are talking about.
VH>> North Korea has two problems -- first of all China doesn't want
VH>> them sparking a war.
VH>> Secondly, if they fired a nuke, what would they do for an encore?
VH>> They'd be incinerated in a heartbeat, and they know it. Hell,
VH>> half the incoming missiles would probably be Chinese.
GB> You are also assuming their action will be governed by rational
GB> thought. With a certified wacko in control, and a heavily
GB> indoctrinated population, who knows if they care they will be
GB> turned into a parking lot.
Even if its irrational, after they pop their nuke, they're at our mercy, and
have no place to hide. N. Korea will be a big black glass parking lot if they
nuke anybody, rational or not.
GB> Have you read how North Korean society is made up?
GB>>> Iran is about the develop nukes and we are playing good cop/bad
GB>>> cop with our European allies help and the reality is save air strikes,
GB>>> there is little else we can do if they just ignore us.
You don't seem to have a very high opinion of our capabilities, or those of the
Israelis; never mind the Brits.
VH>> And if we're lucky, we can win the game without invading them. If
VH>> not, then we'll be well-positioned to hit them from two directions.
GB> Hit them with what? Air strikes?
GB>>> Iran has a minister of defense who openly plans the use of nukes
VH>> against the and even lectures his lessers on how this will happen, mostly
GB>>> through terrorists.
Good. That makes it easier for our intel boys. It also telegraphs their
intentions, and the Israelis won't sit by for long, because they know Tel Aviv
is at the top of the target list.
VH>> What he says, and what he can do are two different things. And
VH>> what he WILL do, is something entirely different. Like North
VH>> Korea, Iran knows that total destruction would follow a nuclear
VH>> strike on another country.
Exactly. But, like Saddam, they won't get the chance. I read an article this
morning saying that the Israelis already have contingency plans drawn up to
take out the Iranian reactor site. Having done this sort of thing once before,
as you may recall, I'd say they're pretty likely to succeed.
GB> I did not say a nuclear strike in relation to Iran. Read again.
GB> Sure he can't do it right now, but then neither could Saddam when
GB> we went after him, but se did it to supposedly prevent him from
GB> doing it and he and his were not even openly talking about it.
Saddam was an enabler, a facilitator, who helped provide support for the
world-wide terrorist network including al-Queda. That was enough to warrant
going after him.
GB>>> But we are so far beyond the Iraq question. We are there now and
GB>>> have to win period.
VH>> That's right -- and when people in the Middle East like Whallad
VH>> Jumblatt start saying the Iraqi elections are like the fall of the
VH>> Berlin Wall, we may just be doing the right thing, after all.
GB> I will certainly admit to that and pray it is and if it does go
GB> down that way, fantastic!
GB>>> The fact is while we are in Iraq, the bad guys of the world know
GB>>> we won't go sailing into their sandbox in any great force, so its time
GB>>> to bulk up since they also know Europe won't do much, if anything.
VH>> Just the contrary -- they don't know we WON'T. They have clear
VH>> evidence that when we feel the need to attack, we DO attack.
GB> What are you going to sail into their sandbox with, the boyscouts?
GB> We are short of troops already. And from what I am reading Rummy
GB> wants to cut back even further which stands in contradiction of
GB> Bush's policy. Even Bill Kristol says that.
By the time we will have to go into Iran, we will be able to pull troops from
Iraq and Afghanistan. But we will also be able to turn Tehran into rubble with
cruise missiles and precision air strikes, just like we did in Baghdad. The
Iranians know this. After all, they had a ringside seat for the whole thing.
I guarantee they're sweating whenever they contemplate that scenario over
Tehran.
John
America: First, Last, and Always!
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--- Msged/386 TE 05
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