Text 1618, 125 rader
Skriven 2006-06-30 14:13:56 av Alan Hess
Ärende: good poll for Dems
==========================
Note that I consider this poll as worthless as the polls posted showing
positive news for Republicans.  As I've said many times, the only poll that
counts is election day.  This is for information only.
******************


http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/nationworld/bal-te.poll30jun30,0,3341401.stor
y?coll=bal-pe-asection

From the Baltimore Sun
Poll shows bright prospects for Democrats in November
Gender gap could pose threat to GOP hold on Congress, survey finds


By Ronald Brownstein

June 30, 2006

WASHINGTON -- President Bush's approval rating has improved slightly, but
discontent over the war in Iraq, especially among women, is continuing to boost
Democratic prospects in the struggle for control of Congress, a Los Angeles
Times/Bloomberg poll has found.

Bush's approval rating edged up to 41 percent, his highest rating in the poll
since January. But Democrats held a formidable advantage, 49 percent to 35
percent, when registered voters were asked which party they intend to support
in this fall's congressional elections.

The survey suggests an old challenge - the gender gap - could pose a renewed
threat to the Republican hold on Congress. While men split about evenly when
asked which party they plan to back for Congress in November, women now prefer
Democrats by nearly 2-to-1.

Doubts about Iraq appear to be a powerful contributor to that trend; in the
survey, women are much less likely than men to say the war has been worth the
cost.

"As far as the war goes, we never should have gone in there without United
Nations backing," said Kathy Bocklage, a poll respondent and registered
Republican from Wayland, N.Y., who said she's planning to support Democrats
this fall after voting for Bush in 2004. "Why [Bush] thought the U.S. could
finance this alone - it's ludicrous."

But beneath the large Democratic lead on the ballot test for November, the poll
offers potential warning signs for the party.

On a wide variety of questions - from satisfaction with Bush's handling of
terrorism to the likelihood of progress in Iraq - it shows modest but
perceptible movement in the president's direction since the last
Times/Bloomberg survey in April. Also, the share of Americans who view the
Democratic Party favorably has declined. And creating a check on Bush seemed
more important than providing an opportunity for Democrats to many poll
respondents who said they intend to back the party's candidates for Congress.

"It's not that I'm for the Democrats specifically," said Carol Shulman, a
communications professor from Oxford, Ohio. "I'm for more of a balance of
power."

The Times/Bloomberg poll interviewed 1,321 adults, including 1,170 registered
voters, between Saturday and Tuesday. It has a margin of sampling error of plus
or minus 3 percentage points.

Even with the recent shifts, the poll documents widespread dissatisfaction with
the nation's direction and the course Bush has set.

More than three-fifths of those surveyed said the country is heading in the
wrong direction. Just 29 percent said the country is better off because of
Bush's policies and "should proceed in the direction he set out," while 61
percent said the nation "needs to move in a new direction."

Bush's 41 percent approval rating represents an increase within the poll's
margin of error from his 39 percent showing in April. Similarly, 56 percent of
those surveyed disapprove of his performance, virtually unchanged from 57
percent in April. And Bush faces a formidable intensity gap: the share of
Americans who strongly disapprove of his performance (40 percent) remains more
than double the share who strongly approve (18 percent).

Americans were cautious in their expectations about the implications of the
military strike that killed al-Qaida in Iraq leader Abu Musab al-Zarqawi on
June 7. Half of those polled predicted it would not effect the Iraqi
insurgency, 38 percent said it might increase the violence and just 8 percent
said that it would stop the attacks.

But against the backdrop of al-Zarqawi's death, 51 percent of those polled gave
Bush positive marks for handling the wider war on terror - an increase of 8
percentage points since April and the first time in any of this year's Times'
polls that he received majority support on that question.

Nils Spurkeland, a student at Susquehanna University in Selinsgrove, Pa., is
among those impressed with Bush's handling of national security. "I'd say we
shouldn't let our guard down, but overall I think the administration has done
an excellent job since there have been no major attacks since Sept. 11," he
said.

Other results underscore continuing problems for Bush. Only 9 percent said his
performance in office has improved their opinion of his credibility; 51 percent
said their opinion has diminished; 39 percent said it has not changed.

On a more contemporary question, just 16 percent of voters said they would be
more likely to support a congressional candidate Bush supports, while more than
twice as many - 36 percent - said they would be less likely. The rest said his
endorsement would not be a factor.

"I'm not happy with Bush; I want a counterbalancing force," said Patrick Baker,
an independent from Tucson, Ariz. "I think he has put his personal religious
beliefs so far ahead of the country that it has made it difficult for him to
run the country in the way that it needs to be run."

Still, the survey captures some trends that could undermine the Democratic
hopes for a strong showing in November. For instance, slightly more Americans
held favorable rather than unfavorable views of congressional Democrats in
April's poll; in the new survey, the balance flipped, with the number
expressing unfavorable views (36 percent) slightly exceeding those with
favorable opinions (34 percent).

"I think the minute Democrats get in, our taxes will go up, and I think our
economy will suffer for it," said Robert Clark, a retiree and registered
Republican from Fort Payne, Ala.

Ronald Brownstein writes for the Los Angeles Times.

Copyright + 2006, The Baltimore Sun | Get Sun home delivery

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