Text 2652, 116 rader
Skriven 2006-09-17 17:06:00 av JIM HOLSONBACK (1:123/140)
     Kommentar till en text av BOB KLAHN
Ärende: Cheney's "energy task for
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-=> On 09-16-06 16:32 BOB KLAHN wrote to JIM HOLSONBACK <=-

<   >
 DC>> JM> Every one of you [del] that have said the price of fuel is/will
 DC>> JM> drop just before the election just to help the Republicans.

 DC>>And, that's exactly what is happening, isn't it.

 RS>> Exactly.

 RS>> Who benefits the most from the GOP staying in power?

 RS>> Easy answer: Big oil.

 RS>> If the GOP loses power in November, the Big Oil CEO's face being up to
 RS>> their fat asses in trouble.

 JH> How so?

 BK>  Congressional investigations, to start with.

See the tagline.   Good campaign slogan for Dems - - elect us, and we
will _investigate_ everything.

 RS>> So in what looks like a blatant attempt to influence the elections, the
 RS>> price of gas is mysteriously dropping.

 JH> And OPEC in on the act?  Why?  BTW, there is nothing
 JH> "mysterious" about it.  Demand is down, and inventories are
 JH> up.

 BK>  It is? How so?

Lots of good info at http://www.eia.doe.gov  also
http://www.opec.org/home/

 BK>  If inventories are up, why couldn't they be up
 BK>  last month? Six months ago?

Actual vs. anticipated growth in world supplies and demands varies with
time. Anticipated supply problems associated with hurricanes, Nigeria,
Iran, etc. have not come about this year as some speculators had allowed
in their forecasts. News article this week that El Nin~o is back, and
this winter may be milder than usual.  This would help to bring down
prices in the distillates portion of the market.

The EIA has past actuals and projected future supplies and demands at
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/forecasting.html  (click on _oil supply and
demand_ ).

OPEC just got through with its big get-together on 9/11/06.  There was
some discussion that they might consider cutting production if the price
of the "OPEC Basket" went below $60, but if they cut production to keep
prices high, that would be an admission that demand is _not_ outpacing
world supply. They didn't cut production.  OPEC oil closed at $58.95
per barrel on 9/13 and $59.22 on 9/14.

 BK>  Has China stopped buying so much oil? Has US consumption dropped
 BK>  out of sight?

Neither.

 BK>  If it dropped 20 cents, maybe, a buck from last year? Suspicious
 BK>  in spades.

Exactly a year ago is a bad time from which to try and draw good oil
price conclusions.

I'm no expert, but I think that prices have been artificially high
starting  spring of 2005, due to traders speculating on oil furures.
Then a year ago we had a big spike in prices just after Katrina and
other Gulf hurricanes. Gasoline price as of 9/11/06 is heading down, but
still above what it was 9 months ago and 15 months ago. Per EIA -
Average gas prices for your state of Ohio - -
          Sarted 2005 under $1.80
15 months ago, 15 Jun 2005 - 207.5
 9 months ago, 13 Feb 2006 - 211.7
11 Sep 2006 - 230.6, and heading down
As of today, unleaded gas is available in Columbus and Cincinatti for
under $2.00

 RS>> However the election goes this November, I'd be willing to bet money
 RS>> the price of gas soars back over $3 a gallon next January.

 JH> You're on!  Here is a one-time offer, just to you. - -
 JH> I'm willing to bet the following amounts, that on Monday,
 JH> 1/15/2007, here in the Birmingham, AL area, I will be able
 JH> to buy gasoline for- -

 JH> [ ] $50 says $3.000 or less
 JH> [ ] $20 says $2.800 or less
 JH> [ ] $10 says $2.600 or less

 BK>  It will take longer than January, probably, he got that wrong.
 BK>  Up big time, though, that's a given.

What is a given is that the world price of oil has fluctuated a lot in
the past, and will do so in the future.  Long-term, the higher oil goes,
the more economically feasible alternative fuels and energy sources will
become. How about oil from coal? We got _lots_ of coal.

Meantime, while this is all sorting itself out, be sure and encourage
all Democrat Congressers to fight against any increased oil exploration,
as in ANWR and in the Gulf. Got to keep the Sierra Club and other tree
huggers happily onboard your party.

Where's Br'er Sakowski in all this?  He should know summat about the
oil industry.  Shouldn't you be asking him?

- - -  JimH.

... "The United States investigates everything- usually after it's dead."
...  - - Will Rogers

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