Text 6502, 94 rader
Skriven 2006-08-16 14:47:00 av Robert E Starr JR (6886.babylon5)
Ärende: Re: My presidential pick
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On Tue, 15 Aug 2006 19:00:18 -0700, "Vorlonagent"
<nojtspam@otfresno.com> wrote:

>
><jmsatb5@aol.com> wrote in message 
>news:1155690632.218605.182870@75g2000cwc.googlegroups.com...
>>
>> Going out on a limb in the prediction category...for the Republicans,
>> there's no question they've struck a deal with McCain, given his
>> behavior and toning down of his usual forthrightness, which sadly kind
>> of invalidates him, as far as I'm concerned.  It may make him a more
>> viable candidate, but a less viable president, if that parses.
>> Nonetheless, he'll start this thing as a front-runner, and may even
>> make it to the nomination, but honestly I think the nomination is
>> Guiliani's to lose.  Maybe we'll see a combination of the two.
>
>Neither are really what the farther-right part of the Republican Party would 
>like.  These guys aren't as persona-non-grata as Joe Leiberman is for 
>Democrats, but neither exactly energizes the base either.  Expect at least 
>one capital-C Conservative in the mix paired with one of these guys.  I see 
>no real chance of an alliance between them.
>
>I consider McCain to be a long-long-shot.  Some R's still hold a grudge over 
>his opposition to Bush in the 2000 pirmary and he hasn't been a strong 
>party-man in recent years even if he has given his maverick streak a rest 
>for 2006.
>
>Guliani, harder to say.  9/11 gave him a whole new image and he still has 
>some well-hoarded political capital from it. The Dems are sure to dredge up 
>his old image.  If Guliani gets the R-nod the question is whether being 
>tarred with his past sins sticks or makes the D's look pedantic.

But Guiliani's also got health concerns - he has (or had relatively
recently) prostate cancer. And the break up of his marriage was
rather... er... "colorful". (I live in the NY metro area, and we got
all the dirt displayed for us on the evening news on a regular basis).

In September of '01, of course, *I* probably would have voted for him
for president.

>
>
>> (One scenario I keep hearing from insiders is Cheney resigning after
>> the November elections for "health reasons" so they can put either one
>> of those two into the VP slot to position him for 2008.  This will in
>> turn give Cheney the freedom to join the Kryptonian Science Council and
>> continue to make clear to all concerned that Krypton's inner core is
>> absolutely rock-solid, regardless of what that nutbar Jor-El says.)
>
>Barring genuine health concerns, Cheney will serve out his term.  Nobody the 
>R's could subsititute could pick up much incumbency advantage at this point. 
>Nor would anybody derive much advantage to assoication with an adminitration 
>whose approval numbers are as low as Bush's currently are.
>
>
>> For the Democrats, barring Edwards making one heck of a comeback, I
>> think the nominee is going to end up being somebody we haven't heard
>> much about before, someone who's going to kind of blind-side the media
>> and the beltway the way Clinton kind of came out of nowhere.  I think
>> we've seen the same-old-gang one time too many, and none of them have
>> demonstrated any real strength in dealing with things in DC, so someone
>> from the outside will, I think, be very attractive.
>
>The nomination was Hillary Clinton's to lose.  With the successful targeting 
>and destruction of Joe Leiberman democrat senate nomination, Clinton's 
>careful presentation of a centrist veneeer may prove to be an unexpected 
>liability with her base.  Then again, with the foiling of a large-scale 
>terror plot shortly after Leiberman's loss, she may prove be in the "sweet 
>spot" after all.
>
>If not Ms. Clinton, the race is wide-open and, agreed, very similar to the 
>1992 race where there was also a large disgust with the poltiical elite 
>regardless of party.  Howard Dean and similar bomb-throwers need not apply 
>(but the Republicans would be happy if they did).  You'll get the usual 
>suspects and also-rans: Edwards, probably Dean, Clinton of course, options 
>on Gore and Kerry.  There will be dark horses aplenty, especially if Ms. 
>Clinton's hold on the nomination looks weak.  We'll see if any of them 
>emerges as a front-runner.

I actually wish that Christine Whitman would get on the Republican
ticket in some way. It would make things much more interesting...

-Wendy
                                  
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