Text 607, 139 rader
Skriven 2009-10-17 17:53:12 av Robert Bashe (2:2448/44)
    Kommentar till text 598 av Michiel van der Vlist (2:280/5555)
Ärende: The Euro
================
Michiel van der Vlist wrote to Robert Bashe on Saturday October 17 2009 at
11:01:

RB>> I _did_ write "in a pinch". Not "with ease" or the like.

MV> Indeed you did, but you forgot to explain to this non-native speaker
MV> what exactly you meant by that.

Sorry. The expression means something like "if necessary, and with certain
restrictions".

MV> If you meant going back to the time without motorised transport - in
MV> effect - rolling back history some 150 years, you may be right.

I wasn't thinking of anything quite that extreme.

RB>> And you aren't first - or presumably the last - to underestimate the
RB>> USA. That's been done quite a number of times over time.

MV> The problem is not me underestimating the USA, the problem is the USA
MV> systematically _overrating_ itself. And she won't learn from mistakes
MV> made in the past.

Maybe and maybe to both statements. I don't see either as obvious fact at this
point in time.

[RSA]
RB>> With a black government that makes the impression of being as
RB>> "capable" as other black governments in Africa... no problem ruining
RB>> an economy that way.

MV> When I talked to them in the seventees and pointed out that white
MV> government in a country with a black majority might not be for
MV> eternity, they said it would never change. With the same confidence
MV> that you keep saying it will never happen to the USA.

What do you mean by "it"? No change or a black majority? I really should know
what I have said - if I really said it, so jog my memory.

MV> Well.. the US already has a black government.

Like hell.

MV> And of course you will say: that's different.

Naturally it is. First of all, Barak is not in a "black" party. He's a
Democrat. There are no other blacks in cabinet positions, and certainly no
majority of blacks in Congress. Nor is there a black majority in the USA, nor
is one likely.

And of course there's one thing you overlook: American blacks are NOT(!!!)
African blacks. The Americans have lived in a civilized, democratic country for
many generations (even if you only count the time since 1865). The Africans, in
most cases, have no idea what democracy means and generally mistrust it,
preferring to buy a Kalashnikov and use it to gain what they need (if they have
or can steal enough money) - or they simply starve, waiting for handouts from
the West. Their usual form of government is a kleptocratic dictatorship.

I was in RSA too, and was very impressed at the vast difference between African
and American blacks. People who try to equate the two are, in my opinion either
misinformed, lack experience or are simply lying.

RB>> But on the other hand, what does that have to do with the statement
RB>> that it was "once" the largest economy on the African continent.
RB>> Isn't it anymore? And if not, who leads now? Even with the
RB>> mismanagement and corruption of the present government, I would have
RB>> thought it impossible to destroy the economic heritage of the
RB>> European era so quickly.

MV> Look at the country that once was called Southern Rhodesia...

Southern Rhodesia = Zimbabwe had "a few" more years to ruin itself. Give RSA
time...

Incidentally, you didn't answer my question.

MV>>> What you do not seem to realise is that the USA is in the same
MV>>> position. The homeland is bigger, but is is NOT self sufficient.

RB>> "Bigger" is a gross understatement,

MV> Is it? Maybe in land surface. But in population? Count the beans...

Since when is a large population an economic advantage? As far as economics are
concerned, a smaller, well-educated population, large land surface and natural
resources are much more important.

RB>> and again, you make the mistake of assuming something is not possible
RB>> merely because it would involve (possibly radical) change. Why should
RB>> _any_ country be self-sufficient in a free-trade world?

MV> It was you who claimed the US economy could run on the homeland alone.
MV> Contrary to the UK You claimed "it is different"

I didn't "claim" that, I hold it to be an obvious fact. Try to compare the UK
to the USA and you automatically are comparing peanuts with coconuts.

MV>>> It does not take a degree in high economics, just a matter of
MV>>> counting beans.

RB>> Indeed. And of discarding cherished preconceptions and thinking
RB>> outside the present situation.

MV> The USA has been overspending for decades. And the US national debt is
MV> still growing. You say she is still the largest economy in the world.
MV> But ask yourself what that economy is based on? What assets does the
MV> US have that she can use to pay off her debts? If you count the beans,
MV> all that she really has is a very impressive military power.

And an industrial basis that is still the world's largest. And the ability to
provide much more than enough food for the population without needing to
import.

As I said before, you underestimate the USA.

RB>> Please note: I have never assumed self-sufficiency in the USA under
RB>> conditions totally unchanged from those at present, which appears to
RB>> be the basis for your denial of that possibility.

MV> Neither do I What I foresee a scenario where the bubble of printing
MV> Dollars to finance the ever growing US national debt will collapse and
MV> the US will be _forced_ into self sufficiency, because they have
MV> nothing to sell and no one will take their Dollars any more.

Well, I doubt that, because the world economy would first have to collapse much
more severely than in 2009 for that to happen. But if and when, neither of us
will be alive to see it.

I used to say that it was inconcieveable that GM could become insolvent. It was
(inconcieveable), but it still happened. The interesting thing was that it
happened, and the world is still turning on its axis, the USA still exists and
even GM has left bankruptcy and is still making cars.

Gives you pause to think, doesn't it?

Cheers, Bob

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