Text 17456, 79 rader
Skriven 2007-04-21 10:10:38 av mike (1:379/45)
Ärende: Microsoft admits Vista failure
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From: mike <mike@barkto.com>


http://www.theinquirer.net/default.aspx?article=39087

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WITH TWO OVERLAPPING events, Microsoft admitted what we have been saying all
along, Vista, aka Windows MeII, is a joke that no one wants. It did two
unprecedented things this week that frankly stunned us.

Dell announced that it would be offering XP again on home PCs. The second that
Vista came out, Microsoft makes it very hard for you to sell anything other
than MeII. It can't do this on the business side because it would be laughed
out the door, but for the walking sheep class, well, you take what you are
shovelled.

This is classic abusive monopoly behavior, Microsoft wrote the modern book on
it. It pulled all the major OEMs in by twisting their arms with the usual
methods, and they again all fell into line. Never before has anyone
backpedalled on this, to do so would earn you the wrath of Microsoft.

But Dell just did. This means that MeII sales are at least as bad as we think,
the software and driver situation is just as miserable, and Dell had no choice
but to buck the trend. If anyone thinks this is an act of atonement for
foisting such a steaming pile on us, think again, it doesn't care about the
consumer.

What happened is the OEMs revolted in the background and forced Microsoft's
hand. This is a big neon sign above MeII saying 'FAILURE'. Blink blink blink.
OK, MeII won't fail, they have OEMs whipped and threatened into a corner, it
will sell, but you can almost hear the defectors marching toward Linux. This is
a watershed.

The other equally monumental MeII failure? Gates in China launching a $3
version of bundled MeII. Why is this not altruism? Well, it goes back to piracy
and how it helped enforce the MS monopoly. If you can easily pirate Windows,
Linux has no price advantage, they both cost zero.

With MeII, Microsoft made it very hard to pirate. It is do-able, you can use
the BIOS hack and probably a host of others, but the point is, it raised the
bar enough so lots of people have to buy it. Want to bet that in a country with
$100 average monthly salary, people aren't going to shell out $299 for MeII
Broken Edition?

What did MS do? It dropped the price about 100x or so. I can't say this is
unprecedented, when it made Office 2003 hard to pirate it had to backpedal with
the student edition for about $150. This time though, things are much more
desperate.

If you fit Microsoft's somewhat convoluted definition of poor, it still wants
to lock you in, you might get rich enough to afford the full-priced stuff
someday. It is at a dangerous crossroads, if its software bumps up the price of
a computer by 100 per cent, people might look to alternatives.

That means no MeII DRM infection lock in, no mass migration to the newer Office
obfuscated and patented file formats, and worse yet, people might utter the W
word. Yes, you guessed it, 'why'. People might ask why they are sticking with
the MS lock in, and at that point, it is in deep trouble.

So, it did the unthinkable, and dropped the price. I won't bother to hunt down
all the exec quotes saying how people can't afford clean water would be
overjoyed to sell kidneys to upgrade to the new version of Office, but they are
out there. This was a sacred cow, and it is now hamburger backed up against the
wall.

These two actions by Microsoft are proof of what I suggested three years ago.
Microsoft has lost its ability to twist arms, and now it is going to die. It
can't compete on level ground, so is left with backpedalling and discounts of
almost 100 times.

What we are seeing is an unprecedented shift of power. It is also an
unprecedented admission of failure. And the funniest part about the moves made?
They are the wrong things to do. Microsoft is in deep trouble. æ
===

 /m

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