Text 17457, 157 rader
Skriven 2007-04-21 10:55:44 av Rich Gauszka (1:379/45)
Ärende: Re: Japanese Failure Dooms Xbox 360
===========================================
From: "Rich Gauszka" <gauszka@dontspamhotmail.com>

The  disaster is the Sony PS3 as it places behind the 360 in sales each month. 
 The analysts keep taking about the hardware though and seem to
ignore the added revenue that MS gets from Xbox live. Once you get them into
the on-line gaming environment Microsoft with Xbox has a steady stream of
revenue.

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/ap/fn/4733965.html
SAN FRANCISCO - The latest installment of the popular "Guitar Hero" has flown
off retail shelves, giving a last-minute boost to video-game sales for past
month.

Activision Inc. launched "Guitar Hero 2" for Microsoft Corp.'s Xbox 360 game
console on April 3, just five days before the close of the March sales period.
Still, the title moved about 291,000 units in that time, making it the third
top-seller for the month, according to data from NPD Group late Thursday.

It was the first release of the popular franchise for a next-generation
console. The game has previously been available only for the PlayStation 2 from
Sony Corp.

Among next-generation consoles, however, Sony continued to lose ground to
rivals Nintendo Co. and Microsoft Corp. Nintendo sold more than 250,000 Wii
consoles in the month, despite reports of a manufacturing slowdown for the
system.

Microsoft sold 199,000 Xbox 360s, while Sony's PlayStation 3 sold only 130,000
units during the month, according to NPD.




"mike" <mike@barkto.com> wrote in message
news:s76k23lm6lscu621pg13ttukp16d7jkdg7@4ax.com...
>
> http://www.forbes.com/home/personalfinance/2007/04/18/xbox-microsoft-nintendo
-pf-ii-in_re_0418soapbox_inl.html
>
> ===
> The success (or lack thereof) of Xbox 360 has been a hotly debated topic
> across both the blogosphere and mainstream media, with an amalgam of
> sober and utterly confused views depending upon one's vantage point:
> analyst, investor or gamer.
>
> After taking a step back and looking at some objective numbers (taken
> from Microsoft's own financial statements and comparative console sales
> figures extracted from VGChartz.com and Wikipedia.org), I have concluded
> that gaming has been a disastrous endeavor for Microsoft, particularly
> from an investment perspective.
>
> The seeds of this failure are evident from its sales performance in
> Japan, particularly when comparing its 18-week sales figures (which is
> about how long the Wii, made by Nintendo and PS3, made by Sony have been
> out) relative to those of the most successful console releases. Special
> Offer: For more than two dozen undervalued technology stocks, click here
> to check out the buy list of the "Prudent Speculator TechValue Report."
>
>
> This early failure in the Japanese market has a compounding negative
> effect on worldwide console sales, as game developers are less willing
> to invest in high-risk projects for console platforms that are shaky
> out-of-the-gates, which makes it less attractive for gamers to buy these
> consoles, and so on.
>
> Let's first consider Microsoft's Home & Entertainment Division ("H&E"),
> which includes Xbox 360, Xbox, Xbox Live, Consumer Software and Hardware
> Products, and IPTV. Making money, i.e., the creation of long-term
> shareholder value, has got to be the ultimate driver of Microsoft's
> gaming (and H&E) strategy, right? Well, after five years and over $21
> billion invested, all they've got to show for it is $5.4 billion of
> cumulative operating losses, and Xbox 360 doesn't appear to be the
> silver bullet to turn things around.
>
> I think it is also interesting to note that Microsoft's actual
> disclosure shows only revenues and operating losses--I backed into and
> show expenses below for explanatory purposes. Why might it be that
> Microsoft has strayed from the classic "revenues minus expenses equals
> profits (losses)" disclosure? Perhaps because it doesn't want investors
> to focus on the fact that more than $21 billion has been invested in a
> business that has performed so poorly, with unclear prospects for
> improvement.
>
> Sometimes these cold, stark facts seem to get lost in the shuffle. Xbox
> 360 (a meaningful part of H&E) might be a fine product, but if so, why
> is it so financially disastrous to its maker? I understand the concept
> of selling a console at a loss in order to lay the foundation for
> recoupment of original investment, plus operating losses, plus
> attractive financial return through gaming, but what is it going to take
> to turn things around? Nothing short of a tectonic transformation in
> perception of Xbox 360 relative to its competitors.
>
> Sure, the Xbox 360 can be righteous and cool with hard-core gamers, but
> this is not a sufficiently large user base to recoup the magnitude of
> investment Microsoft has made in its gaming platform. So if this is
> Microsoft's strategy, it's got a problem. And if the strategy is really
> more mass-market, then it's got some serious repositioning to do
> relative to the Wii, which is both cheaper and more accessible to Ma and
> Pa and Timmy and Tammy gamer. In short, I am at a loss. Correct that:
> Microsoft is at a loss. $5.4 billion and counting.
>
> As far as Japan's role here, consider that over 19 million PS1s and 20
> million PS2s were sold in Japan alone, close to the total worldwide
> sales figures for the original Xbox console. Success in the Japanese
> market is a key part of getting the game developers to buy into a
> platform, for which they invest substantial sums and create titles.
> Plus, people want to buy consoles with better game libraries. Success in
> Japan is frequently a precursor to success globally, which makes it
> particularly attractive for game developers who are looking to amortize
> their development costs over as large an installed base as possible.
>
> If, for instance, the Wii is hot, you get shops like EA turning
> themselves into pretzels to build their title libraries for the Wii
> console. And if your particular console isn't hot? Well, let's just say
> that developers aren't going to be laying out big bucks to invest in the
> platform.
>
> It is instructive to look at where the last major console releases were
> 18 weeks after launch in Japan. Basically, if you did well in Japan
> during this time frame, you had a chance to have a blow-out product. If
> you didn't, well, you didn't. The Xbox did better than the Xbox 360, and
> even the PS3 has done better than the Xbox 360. But success in Japan is
> not a guarantee of a runaway success, as the GameCube proved. Without
> question, Japan is an important and critical market for building a
> globally successful gaming platform, and an early read of the tea leaves
> does not bode well for the Xbox 360.
>
> And this is clearly not lost on Ballmer's Boys in Redmond. Microsoft's
> vision of the gaming console as the window into the living room is a
> big, big bet, and one that clearly hasn't paid off thus far. The
> emphasis on HDTV as being a key factor driving broad-based console sales
> kind of misses the point. Is the Wii successful because of its zippy
> graphics and technological superiority? No. It is successful because it
> is fun. And because it appeals to a broad audience. And because it is
> comparatively cheap. The Microsoft strategy sounds more like a niche
> strategy for hard-core gamers, in which case it's investment in a
> console strategy should be smaller and more targeted.
>
> Microsoft needs to take a long, hard look at its gaming strategy--and,
> in fact, its entire H&E strategy. At what point, regardless of its
> virtually endless financial resources, does it say "enough is enough"?
> Would we have been better served by returning the extra cash to
> shareholders rather than investing it in a franchise that seems to have
> questionable prospects for turning around? These are the kinds of
> questions Microsoft management should be asking. And hopefully, for
> shareholders' sakes, they are.
> ===
>
>
> Looks like Wall Street agrees.
> http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=MSFT&t=5y&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=aapl,^IXIC
>
>
> /m

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