Text 11348, 65 rader
Skriven 2005-04-11 15:02:00 av LEE LOFASO (1:123/140)
Ärende: Papal Politics
======================
Hello Everybody,

Beginning on April 18, the conclave to elect a new pope will begin.
115 cardinals will enter the Sistine Chapel, and will not exit until
the next pope has been elected.  Of those 115 cardinals, only 2 of
them have not been named by the late JPII - Cardinal Ratzinger of
Germany, and Cardinal Baum of the USA.  For the first 30 ballots,
a 2/3 majority is required to elect a new pope.  After 30 ballots,
the cardinals may choose to elect a new pope by simple majority.

All elections involve politics.  Including elections to elect a new
pope.  And that is what a conclave is all about.  Electing a new pope.
However, what kind of politics is involved in electing a new pope?
IOW, what could possibly constitute "Vatican pork"?  It's not like the
new pope would be awarding highway or defense contracts.  After all,
as Stalin once said, "How many divisions does the pope have?"

The thing is, papal elections involve coalition-building.  And the
winners expect some kind of reward.  Otherwise, why should cardinals
vote for a particular candidate?

Popes fill important posts in the Vatican.  Popes name bishops around
the world.  And there are other perks, as well.  I mean, think about it.
The Vatican has a huge bureaucracy.  And it is the pope who fills that
bureaucracy.  The Vatican also has a very large diplomatic corps.  And
it is the pope who fills that diplomatic corps.  Likewise, there are
several Vatican universities.  Not to mention other honors for the
laity.  Bishops can help broker a few deals, if their guy is in power.

Other factors also play a part in electing a new pope -

What direction should the church take, now that JPII is gone?
Remember, this is the Big Enchilada.  The new guy is going to be
the one who sets the course.  Some cardinals might want the new
guy to be like JPII.  Other cardinals might want the new guy to
do things quite differently.  Still other cardinals might want
the new guy to do absolutely nothing, preferring to postpone
and decisions to be made by naming an old coot for the job.

Regional politics will also play a part.  Will the next pope be
from Italy?  Will the next pope be from Europe?  Will the next pope
be from the Third World?  There will be groups of cardinals wanting
to put their own regional candidate in as pope.

And then there are interest groups.  Opus Dei comes to mind.  As well
as Legionaries for Christ.  There are a number of other groups, of which
each wants their own elected as pope.  However, electing a pope from a
particular interest group might lead to a backlash against the growing
power of those organizations.  Or it could lead to a "church within the
church".  IOW, a clique.

Good old-fashioned machine-politics analysis says to put one's money on
an Italian conservative being elected pope.  Or possibly a conservative
from the Third World.  But, gotta always remember to bring the divine
back in, since it is the holy spirit which guides those who are electing
the next pope.  Or so they say.  In that light, I look for a true dark
horse to win.  After all, Karol Wojtyla was the dark horse 26 and half
years ago.  The man the world learned to know as John Paul II.

--Lee


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