Text 29051, 165 rader
Skriven 2007-06-04 22:09:00 av Jeff Binkley (1:226/600)
Ärende: Dems
============
Does this surprise anyone ?  The best thing they have done is nothing...

================================

Democrats Lose Their Edge
Poll Shows Congressional Approval Ratings Have Returned to Pre-Election 
Levels 

June 4, 2007 
Font Size
   
 E-mail
 Print The Democrats in Congress have lost much of the leadership edge 
they carried out of the 2006 midterm election, with the lack of progress 
in Iraq being the leading cause. Their only solace: President Bush and 
the Republicans aren't doing any better. 

Six weeks ago the Democrats held a 24-point lead over Bush as the 
stronger leadership force in Washington; today that's collapsed to a 
dead heat. The Democrats' overall job approval rating likewise has 
dropped, from a 54 percent majority to 44 percent now -- with the 
decline occurring almost exclusively among strong opponents of the Iraq 
War. 

Related Stories
Bush Losing GOP Base on ImmigrationDems Battle Over War, Security
Yet the Democrats' losses have not produced much in the way of gains for 
Bush or his party. The president's approval rating remains a weak 35 
percent, unchanged from mid-April at two points from his career low in 
ABC News/Washington Post polls. The Republicans in Congress do about as 
badly, with just 36 percent approval. 

Another figure underscores the public's broad grumpiness: Seventy-three 
percent now say the country's off on the wrong track, the most in just 
over a decade. 


The Shift
The shift away from the Democrats in Congress has occurred on two 
levels. In terms of their overall approval rating, the damage is almost 
entirely among people who strongly oppose the war in Iraq. In this group 
69 percent approved of the Democrats in April, but just 54 percent still 
approve now -- a likely effect of the Democrats' failure to push a 
withdrawal timetable through Congress. 

Their decline in leadership ratings vs. Bush is more broadly based -- 
that's occurred among war opponents and supporters alike, apparently 
reflecting more an assessment of their performance than an expression of 
support or opposition. 


The Iraq Factor
More than anything, these views are fueled by the continued grind of the 
war in Iraq. Few think the Bush "surge" is working -- 64 percent see no 
significant progress restoring civil order there -- and, looking ahead, 
58 percent predict it will not succeed. 


Sixty-one percent say the war was not worth fighting (down a scant five 
points from April's record high) and majorities reject many of Bush's 
arguments in support of the war -- that it's a critical component of the 
war on terrorism, that it has improved long-term U.S. security and that 
withdrawing poses more danger than remaining. 

Perhaps most challenging is the president's credibility gap: Sixty 
percent of Americans feel they can't trust the Bush administration to 
honestly and accurately report intelligence about security threats 
facing the United States. That makes any of Bush's arguments a hard 
sell. 

Related Stories
Bush Losing GOP Base on ImmigrationDems Battle Over War, Security
Indeed, the public still trusts the Democrats in Congress over Bush to 
handle the situation in Iraq, by 51 percent to 35 percent. But the 
Democrats' number has slipped from 58 percent in April and a high of 60 
percent in January. 


Concerns
There are real concerns about what lies ahead for Iraq and the United 
States alike. If the United States withdraws without civil order first 
being restored, seven in 10 Americans see any of three possibilities as 
at least somewhat likely: Full-scale civil war, parts of Iraq becoming a 
base of operations for terrorists targeting the United States and parts 
of Iraq falling under Iranian control. 
Four in 10 see the first two outcomes as "very" likely, and a third say 
the same of the third. People who see any of these as very likely are 
much more apt than others to oppose any decrease in U.S. forces in Iraq. 

As noted, other arguments raised by Bush are less persuasive. Fewer than 
half believe the war has contributed to the long-term security of the 
United States -- 44 percent in this poll, a new low. Fewer, 37 percent, 
believe the United States must win in Iraq in order for the broader U.S. 
campaign against terrorism to succeed. And fewer still, 23 percent, 
think withdrawing from Iraq will do more to increase the risk of a 
terrorist attack against the United States than remaining there. 

Withdraw? -- What to do is the open question. Fifty-five percent want 
U.S. forces decreased -- it's been about there for a year and a half -- 
but just 15 percent support their immediate withdrawal. Nineteen percent 
would increase U.S. forces -- as many as would pull them out 
immediately. 


The combination of these two sentiments -- deep unhappiness with the 
situation, and lack of consensus on what to do about it -- is what's 
driving broader discontent with Bush, with the Republicans in Washington 
and now with the Democrats as well. 

Toll -- The toll of this discontent is unmistakable. Bush has not seen 
majority approval in any ABC/Post poll since January 2005; in 
presidential polling back to the late 1930s, only President Truman 
stayed so low for a longer period of time. And Americans are nearly 
three times as likely to "strongly" disapprove of Bush's job performance 
(46 percent) as to strongly approve (17 percent). 

Bush Losing GOP Base on ImmigrationDems Battle Over War, Security
It's even longer -- September 2004 -- since a majority has said the war 
in Iraq was worth fighting. The two -- views on the war and Bush's job 
approval rating -- correlate very highly, at 0.9, where 0 is no 
correlation and 1 is complete congruence. 

Overall just 31 percent approve of Bush's handling of the war in Iraq. 
And the public's negativity has overtaken Bush's other ratings as well, 
most notably on his cornerstone issue -- the one that got him re-elected 
-- handling the U.S. campaign against terrorism. Just 44 percent now 
approve, matching his career low. 

Indeed a narrow majority (now 52 percent) has disapproved of Bush's 
handling of terrorism steadily since last October, and, since December, 
more have picked the Democrats than picked Bush to handle it. As in 
other measures, though, slightly fewer now pick the Democrats (46 
percent) than did earlier this year (52 percent in February). 

Separate damage for Bush has come on the subject of immigration: With 
his reform package on the table, his approval rating for handling 
immigration has plummeted among Republicans, from 61 percent in April to 
45 percent now. See separate analysis here. 

Groups -- As usual, partisan and ideological differences shoot through 
many of these results. Seventy-four percent of Republicans approve of 
Bush's job performance overall, compared with 32 percent of independents 
and just one in 10 Democrats. (But just four in 10 Republicans 
"strongly" approve, vs. seven in 10 Democrats who strongly disapprove.) 

Similarly, two-thirds of Republicans approve of how Bush is handling the 
war in Iraq, and 70 percent say the war was worth fighting — views on 
which vastly fewer independents or Democrats agree. The division between 
Republicans and others on these measures underscores the challenge to 
Republican presidential candidates, who need to appeal to their base, 
which still supports Bush — yet also to be in a position to broaden that 
appeal, in a general election campaign, to those who don't. 

Methodology
This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone May 29-
June 1, 2007, among a random national sample of 1,205 adults, including 
an oversample of African-Americans for a total of 284 black respondents. 
The results have a three-point error margin. Sampling, data collection 
and tabulation by TNS of Horsham, Pa. 

Click here for PDF version with full questionnaire and results. 
For more ABC News polls visit the Poll Vault here. 

--- PCBoard (R) v15.3/M 10
 * Origin:  (1:226/600)